The Medicare Gold Rush Is Slowing Down

The Medicare Gold Rush Is Slowing Down
Wall Street Journal
December 6, 2023
The popularity of private Medicare plans has been a huge driver of profits for insurance companies in recent years. There are signs the gold rush isn’t quite what it once was. ... The most immediate red flag came from the industry leader, UnitedHealth. During an investor day last week, it predicted its Medicare Advantage enrollment would grow by 450,000 to 550,000 seniors in 2024. That translates to around 5% growth next year, a significant slowdown from the 11% it grew so far this year, according to TD Cowen analyst Gary Taylor. As UnitedHealth executives were presenting in New York, The Wall Street Journal reported that the second-largest Medicare plan provider, Humana, was in merger talks with Cigna. While Cigna’s interest in Humana surely attests to insurers’ continued desire to expand into the Medicare market, some investors took it as a sign that Humana isn’t so sure about the strength of the business going forward.